So, the bugle has been sounded: after exactly a year Delhi is set to get an elected government. In a country where a week can be a long time in politics, 12 months is an eternity. In February 2014, Aam Admi party leader Arvind Kejriwal was literally walking on water: he was ready to take on Narendra Modi nationally, filed FIRs against India’s top corporates, was staging dharnas on Rajpath. It didn’t take long for the bubble to burst. Modi scored a remarkable election victory in May, a majority of the AAP candidates lost their deposits and Kejriwal’s dramatic resignation after just 49 days in office meant that he was seen as someone ill-suited to governance. That he has admitted to his mistakes is reassuring and a sign of evolving political maturity. But will the Delhi voter give him a second chance?
On a television programme last night on Aaj Tak, I was speaking to the audience which was predominantly middle class. The majority were emphatic: Kejriwal has betrayed their mandate. ‘Modiji sarkar chalana jaante hain, Kejriwal dharna karna jaante hain!’ was the refrain. Clearly, the middle class honeymoon with Modi appeared intact: the prime minister is seen as an effective administrator who will eventually bring ‘ache din’. When I attempted to suggest that the BJP lacked a credible face to lead the Delhi government, I was shouted down: ‘jab Modiji hain, why do we worry about anyone else!’. Clearly, like Amitabh Bachchan in the late 1970s, Modi’s superstar status now dwarfs all else.
So, is Delhi a done deal for the BJP? Well, not quite. Driving back home, I asked the man at the wheel who he was voting for. 42 year old Sanjay has three children, lives in a slum cluster in east Delhi, is a first generation migrant from Eastern UP. He told me how water supply in his area was erratic, power was intermittent and sanitation was poor. And the local police and municipal authorities were brutal and corrupt. ‘Koi sunvai nahin sir, Kejriwal ke time mein to hamein laga kuch badlega.’ He said he would vote for the jhadoo. ‘Hum to local aadmi ke liye vote karenge,’ he told me.
‘Local’ Kejriwal versus ‘national’ Modi, ‘poorer’ colonies versus the more affluent ones: the battlelines in Delhi have been drawn. The BJP remains in pole position to win the election but clearly the AAP is not going away in a hurry. Interestingly, no one I have spoken to seems to be voting for the Congress even though Sheila Dikshit is probably the best thing that happened to Delhi in the last 20 years. Public memory is incredibly short, one reason why no two elections in India are ever the same.
Post-script: Yesterday, a video journalist told me that he had been asked by his news channel to cover all AAP rallies, but that none of them would be shown ‘live’ nor would the AAP leadership be called for a live debate. By contrast, every Modi rally will have carpet-bombing coverage. 12 months ago, Kejriwal was the flavour of the television camera. Now, three ‘M’s — Modi, money and yes, the media, — are all lining up behind the BJP. I don’t know what that says about the state of the Delhi voter but it sure says a lot about the state of the media.
